Natural Wonders

What December? Slushy Possibilities by Sunday

The image below shows our temperature anomaly over the last 90 days, which is virtually meteorological fall (September – October – November). Note the warmer oranges & reds that stretch from the Central US, through much of Canada and north to the Arctic regions. Pretty remarkable…

Believe it or not, MSP had one of its top 5 warmest Meteorological Falls on record (September 1st – November 30th). The warmest such period was back in 1931.

Not only was our meteorological fall one of the 5 warmest on record, but we’re also sitting at one of our top 5 warmest years on record so far (since January 1st).

November 2021 only recorded 1.2″ of snow at the MSP Airport, which is more than -5.0″ below average. This is the 37th least snowy November on record at the MSP Airport. We’re also -6.0″ below average for Meteorological Fall, which is the 36th least snowy meteorological fall on record. Interestingly, other than Green Bay, WI, every climate station across the region is below average in terms of snowfall so far this season.

Here’s a look at snow depth across the region, which shows minimal snow cover across the northern third of the state. The greatest snow depth was reported in International Falls, where 4″ was on the ground. Meanwhile, folks in the southern two-thirds of the state are snow free.

It’s been a slow start to the snow season across the Midwest. Other than a little snow across the international border and the Great Lakes, there doesn’t appear to be much snow on the ground around the region.

The simulated radar from AM Wednesday to AM Monday shows somewhat active weather across the Midwest with several impulses of energy scooting along the international border. Each system will bring the potential of snow across the international border and northern Minnesota. The biggest system arrives late Saturday into Sunday with the possibility of shovelable/plowable snow north of the Metro.

According to the ECMWF, there could be some shovelable/plowable snow across the northern half of the state with some spots picking up closer to 3″ to 6″ by Monday.

According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 3% of the state is still considered to be in an extreme drought (in red across northern Minnesota), which is down from nearly 58% from 3 months ago. There has been a slight improvement in Severe Drought, which is at 27%, down from 88% 3 months ago. Nearly 52% of the state is still under a Moderate Drought, which includes much of the Twin Cities Metro.

Here’s a look at the precipitation departure from average since January 1st and note that most locations are still several inches below average. The Twin Cities The metro is still -6.42″ below average since January 1st, which is the 46th driest January 1st – November 29th on record.

Wednesday will be another very warm day with temps warming into the low/mid 50s, which will be nearly +20F above average for the early part of December. The early morning hours could feature a few light rain showers or sprinkles, but skies will clear in the afternoon with highs quickly warming into the 50s.

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Wednesday show readings starting in the upper 30s in the morning and warming into the low/mid 50s by the afternoon. There will also be a sun and cloud mix with westerly winds gusting up to 20mph.

High temps across the region on Wednesday will be very warm for the first day of December. Highs across the state will warm to near 40F in the NE part of the state, where areas of snow will fall. Meanwhile, folks in the SW parts of the state could see highs in the lower 60s, which will be near +20F above average and even close to record highs in the western / southwestern part of the state.

Here’s a look at the potential record highs across the region on Wednesday. Note the numbers with boxes around them, these are the potential record highs for December 1st. The high for the Twin Cities will warm into the low/mid 50s, which will be nearly +20F above average. Interestingly, the record high for the Twin Cities on December 1st is 68F set in 1998.

Temperatures will be well above average for the early part of December with highs running nearly +15F to +20F above average. Highs by the weekend will be closer to average with readings warming into the low/mid 30s.

The weather outlook through the first weekend of December shows temperatures gradually cooling to near normal levels. There is a chance of snow this weekend, but the best chance will be across northern Minnesota once again. There is another chance of snow as we approach Tuesday.

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temperatures will be well above average over the next several days. However, temperatures will gradually cool as we head through the first full week of December. According to the GFS, there will be a continued temperature rollercoaster as we head through mid month.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows well above average temperatures continuing across much of the nation and especially the Southern & Southeastern US.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, dry weather will be in place across much of the Plains. Meanwhile, folks in the northwest and east of the Mississippi River will have a better chance of precipitation.

A friend is golfing today. People are still fishing on the lake out back. It sure doesn’t look like the first day of December.

Which brings up a series of questions. Does this mean a milder winter? (not necessarily) Should I pack away the shovels, parkas and winter toys? (nope) How much of this is symptoms of a warming climate?

Additional warmth is superimposed on natural weather variability; the normal ups and downs. Specifically, a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation has kept jet stream steering winds howling from the Pacific Ocean the last few months, keeping bitter air bottled upwell to our north. A negative phase of the AO means a wavier jet stream, with more frequent intrusions of bitter air (spinning up more storms in the process).

A rain shower early today gives way to 50 degrees, but clippers dropping slushy coatings on northern Minnesota will drag increasingly cold air south.

Models hint at a few inches Saturday night into Sunday; maybe plowable north of MSP? Yes, it’s about time.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, mild. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 52.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy & mild. Winds: W 5-10. Low: 38.

THURSDAY: Intervals of sun, a bit cooler. Winds: NW 10-15. High: 48.

FRIDAY: Early shower, then clearing. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 36. High: 44.

SATURDAY:Cool sunshine. Snow arrives at night. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 28. High: 36.

SUNDAY: Few inches of snow. Tricky travel. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 23. High: 31.

MONDAY: Some sun, better travel. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 20. High: 36.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny, gusty and chilly. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 18. High: 29.

December 1st

1998: The warmest December day ever in the Twin Cities is recorded, with a high of 68 degrees. St. Cloud rose to 61.

1985: Parts of central Minnesota receive up to a foot of snow. Snowfall totals include 12 inches at Waseca and Milaca, 11.3 at Alexandria, and 11 inches at Fairmont and Long Prairie.

December 1st

Average High: 32F(Record: 68F set in 1998)

Average Low: 18F (Record: -15Fset in 1893)

Record Rainfall: 0.83″ set in 1985

Record Snowfall: 8.4″ set in 1985

December 1st

Sunrise: 7:30am

Sunset: 4:33pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9hours & 2minutes

Daylight LOSTsinceyesterday: ~ 1 minute & 31 seconds

Daylight LOSTsince SummerSolstice (June 20th): ~6 Hour & 48 Minutes

2.0 Days Before New Moon

The weather outlook on Wednesday shows above average temperatures across much of the nation. Interestingly, much of the Central US will be well above average with record to near record highs will be in place across the Plains and along the Front Range of the Rockies.

The weather outlook through the end of the week shows mostly quiet weather across much of the nation with the exception of the northern tier of the nation. There will be areas of light rain/snow across the Great Lakes and Northern New England States.

According to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, heavier precipitation will be found in the Pacific Northwest and across parts of the Great Lakes Region. However Many locations across the Southern Two-Thirds of the nation will be dry.

Here’s the extended snowfall potential through next week, which shows heavier snow potential across the northern tier of the nation. The heaviest will be found across the Rockies and also in the Northeast.

“Residents in the Southwest may be preparing to flip the calendars to the typically cooler month of December, but a building dome of high pressure has had different ideas — an autumn heat wave. The blast of record-challenging warmth began over the weekend, and experts say upcoming seasonal winds will only enhance the sweltering conditions. The stretch of record-challenging warmthofficially became a heat waveafter the high temperatures remained abnormally high for more than two days. The enhanced heat this week will be bolstered by the seasonalSanta Anawinds that gust through the region, pushing many areas into the territory of record-breaking temperatures. The heat began building last week, and on Sunday,Woodland Hills, Calif., was thehottest locationin theUnited Stateswith a high of 90 degrees. Farther north, the city ofOaklandalso broke its daily record, set in 2002, by rising to 73 F.”

See more from UPI HERE:

Climate change is threatening some of the planet’s greatest natural wonders. Intense wildfires are destroying centuries-old giant Sequoia trees. Coral reefs are being bleached out of existence. And glaciers are melting at an alarming rate. Snorkeling on the Great Barrier Reef often appears on travelers’ bucket lists. But like many other natural wonders of the world, climate change is having a big impact on the famous coral reef. Here’s how the climate crisis is threatening some of Earth’s most beautiful sights.

See more from WE Forum HERE:

“We’ve heard these claims before. But the mounting scale of the climate and energy conundrum is fueling more money and favorable policies into atomic power. The worst nuclear accident since the1986 Chernobyl disasteris a recent and painful memory in Japan. Yet in the lead-up to this month’sUnited Nations climate summit, newly elected Prime Minister Fumio Kishida vowed to restart the reactors the country shut down after a tsunami flooded theFukushima-Daiichi plant in 2011and caused a meltdown that contaminated more than 300 square miles with hazardous levels of radiation. Japan was hardly alone in rediscovering its enthusiasm fornuclear power. As negotiations to phase out coal fizzled, the United Kingdom announced an investment in Rolls-Royce’s next-generation nuclear reactors. Ghana and Indonesia unveiled plans for their first reactors. And China, the world’s No. 1 carbon emitter, promised to construct an unprecedented 150 new reactors in the next 15 years ― more than the entire world built in the last 35.”

See more from Huffington Post HERE:

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